Raheem Sterling unfairly judged on his goals but he’s a winger, says Man City legend Shaun Wright-Phillips

RAHEEM STERLING got the royal seal of approval on Tuesday — now England fans should start treating him like a king.

Shaun Wright-Phillips believes Sterling is underappreciated by supporters because he is unfairly judged against world-class strikers, when he is actually a winger.

Manchester City star Sterling spent time with Prince William in the Caribbean earlier this week and will report for England duty today.

He was given permission by Three Lions boss Gareth Southgate to join his team-mates a day late, after answering the personal invite from the Duke of Cambridge.

Sterling, who has Jamaican heritage, found his chances at City limited either side of the summer break last year.

However, City chief Pep Guardiola began using him as a makeshift centre-forward after the departure of Sergio Aguero.

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And Sterling, 27, has played his part in keeping City challenging on three fronts — scoring his 14th goal of the season in Sunday’s 4-1 FA Cup win at Southampton.

It is a decent tally considering he has started just 24 games this term and had little experience of playing down the middle before this.

Former City star Wright-Phillips said: “Everyone says that it was a blip last year but people sometimes forget he’s still young. They forget he’s a winger that is now classed as a striker.

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“His game changed a lot under Pep and you can say, in a way, it’s made him a lot better.

The UK used a formula to predict students’ scores for canceled exams. Guess who did well.

Every spring, British students take their A-level exams, which are used to determine admission into college.

But this year was different. With the Covid-19 pandemic still raging, spring’s A-levels were canceled. Instead, the government took an unorthodox — and controversial — approach to assessing admissions without those exam scores: It tried to use a mathematical rule to predict how the students would have done on their exams and then use those estimates as a stand-in for actual scores.

The approach the government took was fairly simple. It wanted to guess how well a student would have done if they had taken the exam. It used two inputs: the student’s grades this year and the historical track record of the school the student was attending.

So a student who got excellent grades at a school where top students usually get good scores would be predicted to have achieved a good score. A student who got excellent grades at a school where excellent grades historically haven’t translated to top-tier scores on the A-levels would instead be predicted to get a lower score.

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The overall result? There were more top scores than are awarded in any year when students actually get to take the exam.

But many individual students and teachers were still angry with scores that they felt were too low. Even worse, the adjustment for how well a school was “expected” to perform ended up being strongly correlated with how rich those schools are. Rich kids tend to do better on A-levels, so the prediction process awarded kids at rich schools higher grades.

The predictive process and its outcome set off alarm bells. One Guardian columnist called it “shockingly unfair.” Legal action was threatened. After a weekend of angry demonstrations where students, teachers, and parents chanted, “Fuck the algorithm,” Britain backed off and announced that it will give students whatever grade their teachers estimated they would get if it’s higher than the exam score estimates.

What’s playing out in Britain is a bunch of different things at once: a drama brought on by the Covid-19 pandemic exacerbated by bad administrative decision-making against the backdrop of class tensions. It’s also an illustration of a fascinating dilemma often discussed as “AI bias” or “AI ethics” — even though it has almost nothing to do with AI. And it raises important questions about the kind of biases that get our attention and those that for whatever reason largely escape our scrutiny.

Predicting an unfair world

Imagine a world where rich children and poor children are just as likely to do drugs, but poor children are five times more likely to be arrested. Every time someone is arrested, a prediction system tries to predict whether they will re-offend — that is, whether someone like that person who is arrested for drugs will likely be arrested for drugs again within a year. If they are likely to re-offend, they get a harsher sentence. If they are unlikely to re-offend, they are released with probation.

Since rich children are less likely to be arrested, the system will correctly predict that they are less likely to be re-arrested. It will declare them unlikely to re-offend and recommend a lighter sentence. The poor children are much more likely to be re-arrested, so the system tags them as likely re-offenders and recommends a harsh sentence.

This is grossly unfair. There is no underlying difference at all in the tendency to do drugs, but the system has disparities at one stage and then magnifies the disparities at the next stage by using them to make criminal judgments.

“The algorithm shouldn’t be predicting re-jailing; it should be predicting re-offending. But the only proxy variable we have for offending is jailing, so it ends up double-counting anti-minority judges and police,” Leor Fishman, a data scientist who studies data privacy and algorithmic fairness, told me.

If the prediction system is an AI trained on a large dataset to predict criminal recidivism, this problem gets discussed as “AI bias.” But it’s easy to see that the AI is not actually a crucial component of the problem. If the decision is made by a human judge, going off their own intuitions about recidivism from their years of criminal justice experience, it is just as unfair.

Some writers have pointed to the UK’s school decisions as an example of AI bias. But it’s actually a stretch to call the UK’s Office of Qualifications and Examinations Regulation’s approach here — taking student grades and adjusting for the school’s past year’s performance — an “artificial intelligence”: it was a simple math formula for combining a few data points.

Rather, the larger category here is perhaps better called “prediction bias” — cases where, when predicting some variable, we are going to end up with predictions that are disturbingly unequal. Often they’ll be deeply influenced by factors like race, wealth, and national origin that anti-discrimination laws broadly prohibit taking into account and that it is deeply unfair to hold against people.

AIs are just one tool we use to make predictions, and while their failings are often particularly legible and maddening, they are not the only system that fails in this way. It makes national news when a husband and wife with the same income and debt history apply for a credit card and get offered wildly different credit limits thanks to an algorithm. It probably won’t be noticed when the same thing happens but the decision was made by a local banker not relying on complex algorithms.

In criminal justice, in particular, algorithms trained on recidivism data make sentencing recommendations with racial disparities — for instance, unjustly calling to imprison Black men for longer jail time than white men. But when not using algorithms, judges make these decisions off sentencing guidelines and personal intuition — and that produces racial disparities, too.

Are disparities in predictions really more unjust than disparities in real outcomes?

It’s important not to use unjust systems to determine access to opportunity. If we do that, we end up punishing people for having been punished in the past, and we etch societal inequalities deeper in stone. But it’s worth thinking about why a system that predicts poor children will do worse on exams generated so much more rage than the regular system that just administers exams — which, year after year, poor children do worse on.

For something like school exam scores, there aren’t disparities just in predicted outcomes but in real outcomes too: Rich children generally score better on exams for many reasons, from better schools to better tutors to more time to study.

If the exam had actually happened, there would be widespread disparities between the scores of rich kids and poor kids. This might anger some people, but it likely wouldn’t have led to the widespread fury that similar disparities in the predicted scores produced. Somehow, we’re more comfortable with disparities when they show up in actual measured test data than when they show up in our predictions about that measured test data. The cost to students’ lives in each instance is the same.

The UK effectively admitted, with their test score adjustments, that many children in the UK attended schools where it was very implausible they would get good exam scores — so implausible that even the fact they got excellent grades throughout school wasn’t enough for the government to expect they’d learned everything they needed for a top score. The government may have backed down now and awarded them that top score anyway, but the underlying problems with the schools remain.

We should get serious about addressing disparities when they show up in real life, not just when they show up in predictions, or we’re pointing our outrage at the wrong place.


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Did America’s top spy release Russian disinformation to help Trump?

It sure looks like the guy who’s in charge of the entire US intelligence community is selectively declassifying unverified intelligence to make Democrats look bad ahead of the 2020 presidential election.

Even worse: The intelligence, at least in the minds of some critics, may actually be Russian disinformation.

In a letter sent on Tuesday to Sen. Lindsey Graham, Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe — a former Republican congressman from Texas and a staunch ally of the president — declassified information relating to the FBI’s probe into possible collusion between Russia and Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign.

Here’s the core of the disclosure:

In late July 2016, U.S. intelligence agencies obtained insight into Russian intelligence analysis alleging that U.S. Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton had approved a campaign plan to stir up a scandal against U.S. Presidential candidate Donald Trump by tying him to Putin and the Russians’ hacking of the Democratic National Committee. The IC does not know the accuracy of this allegation or the extent to which the Russian intelligence analysis may reflect exaggeration or fabrication.

Let’s be clear about what this says: America obtained information that Russian spies believed Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign fabricated ties between Trump and the Kremlin, but the US intelligence community couldn’t confirm whether that was true because Moscow may have just made it up.

In other words, Ratcliffe acknowledged he released material that would likely be harmful to Clinton and the Democrats — and helpful to Trump — without knowing its veracity.

But it gets worse: Recent news reports have revealed that Ratcliffe declassified the intelligence against the advice of nonpolitical, career US intelligence officials who feared his doing so “would give credibility to Kremlin-backed material,” according to the Wall Street Journal.

As DNI, Ratcliffe doesn’t have to listen to his subordinates, of course. But the reporting further suggests that Ratcliffe, who fiercely defended Trump during the impeachment hearings as a then-member of Congress, prioritized Trump’s political interests over the interests of, well, the entire country.

The letter went public mere hours before Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden squared off in the first 2020 presidential debate. And, intentionally or not, the disclosure had an immediate impact: During the debate, the president mentioned what Ratcliffe released. “You saw what happened today with Hillary Clinton, where it was a whole big con job,” he said.

All of this is deeply troubling and threatens to politicize the intelligence community at a time when untainted, clear information is at a premium. “He has declassified information for patently partisan reasons, and he has done so in an underhanded manner,” said John Sipher, who ran the CIA’s Russia operations during a 28-year career in the agency’s National Clandestine Service.

In one fell swoop, then, Ratcliffe may have tainted the reputation America’s spy agencies try so hard to build. “The damage to US intelligence will be difficult to undo for years,” said Alina Polyakova, president and CEO of the Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington, DC.

“Among the worst sins of a professional intelligence officer”

Perceptions of the intelligence community as a whole are positive only when it’s seen as an apolitical entity offering unbiased, fact-based information to policymakers.

That information is typically presented only when America’s intelligence agencies have verified and placed it within a broader context to help government officials — from the president on down — make informed decisions.

Trump’s intelligence chief, who took the job after the impeachment hearings, broke that cardinal rule.

“Ratcliffe’s actions are among the worst sins of a professional intelligence officer,” Sipher told me. “They know that a single piece of information is meaningless without having the necessary context. To release one piece of information without providing context is unprofessional and damages the reputation of our intelligence community.”

To understand why that’s the case, it’s apt to use the metaphor of a puzzle here.

It’s hard to see the full picture by looking at just one of thousands of puzzle pieces. Once they’re mostly in place, the final image becomes clear and evident to all. The same, roughly speaking, goes for intelligence. One piece is good, but more pieces are better. And if spies can show a policymaker the entirety of the puzzle image, it’s easier for them to make informed decisions.

That’s why many experts were surprised by Ratcliffe’s decision. It’s the job of intelligence officials to present as full a picture as possible to their intended customers, not just hand over a single piece and say, “Here you go, make of it what you will.”

Let’s go a step further: What if that singular puzzle piece isn’t from the set at all? What if someone purposefully slipped in a piece that looks like it fits but doesn’t? Well, the earlier that piece can be discounted and discarded as not being part of the actual puzzle you’re trying to put together, the better.

That’s what Republican and Democratic lawmakers on the Senate Intelligence Committee did. The Clinton-related nugget Ratcliffe declassified didn’t feature at all in the panel’s five-part report on how Russia interfered in the 2016 election. That’s not to say the committee was unaware of the tidbit or dismissed it entirely, but it clearly didn’t fit into the overall picture.

This is partly why the administration’s critics immediately seized on Ratcliffe’s decision.

“It’s very disturbing to me that 35 days before an election, a director of national intelligence would release unverified” information coming from Russia, Virginia Sen. Mark Warner, the top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, told the New York Times.

After all, it’s entirely possible Russia wanted the US to “find” that puzzle piece to mislead American spies. Russian hackers aimed to sow discord in the US during the 2016 election, and few things would ratchet up tensions more than having the government believe Clinton created an explosive conspiracy theory to beat Trump.

Ratcliffe defended his decision hours after releasing the letter, saying in a statement the intelligence he declassified “is not Russian disinformation and has not been assessed as such by the intelligence community.” He then provided a briefing on the sources behind the snippet just for Graham — and no Democrats — on Tuesday night, the Times reported.

Even if Ratcliffe is telling the truth about the intelligence, declassifying it obscured more than illuminated and clearly provided Trump and his allies a weapon ahead of the biggest event in the 2020 election season so far. And he did so even as multiple US agencies say Russia is once again interfering to aid the president’s reelection chances.

That’s not the work of an impartial intelligence chief. That’s the work of a crony.

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A 6,000-year-dormant Icelandic volcano just erupted — and it’s awesome

After months of earthquakes, a long-dormant volcano in the southwest of Iceland erupted on Friday night, leading to dramatic videos and splendid red skies near the country’s capital city.

According to the Icelandic Meteorological Office, the eruption near Mount Fagradalsfjall, about 20 miles southwest of Reykjavik, took place at 8:45 pm. Though considered small, the eruption created a fissure about 1,640 feet long, and spewed more than 10 million square feet of lava, sometimes in fountains reaching heights of more than 300 feet.

It was the first volcanic eruption in this part of Iceland — the Reykjanes Peninsula, home to Reykjavik, where most of the country’s residents live — in 781 years. And it was the first time this particular volcano had gone off in about 6,000 years.

The eruption, in the Geldinga Valley, was remote enough that evacuations were not necessary, and no structures were endangered.

“As of now it is not considered a threat to surrounding towns,” said Iceland’s prime minister, Katrín Jakobsdóttir, on Twitter on Friday night. “We ask people to keep away from the immediate area and stay safe.”

Experts warned residents to beware emissions of dangerous gases, including carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide, and there were some resulting traffic jams. Drones were temporarily prohibited from flying over the area, to allow scientists first access, but flights in and out of the international Keflavik Airport have not been affected.

The head of emergency management in the country told people to close their windows and stay inside to avoid volcanic gas pollution, which could spread as far as Thorlákshöfn, a city about 30 miles south of Reykjavik.

But on Saturday, the meteorological office said, “Currently, gas pollution is not expected to cause much discomfort for people except close up to the source of the eruption.”

The eruption is ongoing, and could last for “a day or a month,” Magnús Tumi Gudmundsson, a geophysicist at the University of Iceland, told RÚV, the Icelandic National Broadcasting Service.

That makes this latest Icelandic geologic event starkly different from the large-scale earthquake at the Eyjafjallajokull volcano in 2010, which caused more than 100,000 flights across Europe to be canceled for weeks afterward as ash spread across northern Europe and Great Britain. That was described as the largest shutdown of airspace since WWII.

“The more we see, the smaller this eruption gets,” Páll Einarsson, a geophysicist at the University of Iceland, told the Associated Press on Saturday.

Despite the relatively small size, the eruption provided residents with unique views — and people across the region shared photos of the skies, as scientists set up a livestream of the flowing lava.

Iceland’s location makes it particularly susceptible to earthquakes — and eruptions

Iceland is no stranger to volcanic activity. There is usually an eruption every four or five years because the island is in a region that is particularly susceptible to seismic activity. The most recent one, in 2014, was at Holuhraun, a lava field in the Icelandic Highlands.

Earthquakes are a familiar experience, too; since 2014, the country registered between 1,000 and 3,000 earthquakes per year. But since December 2019, that number has dramatically increased, according to the New York Times; scientists are still working to understand why.

In the last week alone, Iceland experienced more than 18,000 earthquakes, with more than 3,000 on Sunday. At least 400 had taken place in the area of the volcano the day before the eruption — and that was a relatively calm day, according to state meteorologists.

“This is somewhat less seismic activity in comparison to previous mornings where the numbers have been around 1,000 earthquakes,” the meteorological office said.

Many of those earthquakes were undetectable to ordinary people, but some were of magnitude 3 and greater, so that they could be felt. The largest was a 5.7-magnitude quake on the morning of February 24, followed by a magnitude 5 tremor 30 minutes later.

“I have experienced earthquakes before, but never so many in a row,” Reykjavik resident Audur Alfa Ólafsdóttir told CNN earlier this month. “It is very unusual to feel the Earth shake 24 hours a day for a whole week. It makes you feel very small and powerless against nature.”

According to Thorvaldur Thórdarson, a professor of volcanology at the University of Iceland, the cause of this dramatic increase in seismic activity is still being studied.

“We are battling with the ‘why’ at the moment. Why is this happening?” he told CNN. “It is very likely that we have an intrusion of magma into the [Earth’s] crust there. It has definitely moved closer to the surface, but we are trying to figure out if it’s moving even closer to it.”

Icelanders were warned about possible volcanic activity as a result of the earthquakes beginning on March 3. Officials at the time did not expect the event to be life-threatening or affect property.

Iceland’s location along a series of tectonic plates — known as the Mid-Atlantic Ridge — has made it uniquely susceptible to activity.

As the Times’s Elian Peltier writes, “The country straddles two tectonic plates, which are themselves divided by an undersea mountain chain that oozes molten hot rock, or magma. Quakes occur when the magma pushes through the plates.”

Officials, including Justice Minister Áslaug Arna Sigurbjörnsdóttir, the Coast Guard, and first responders shared overhead images of bright lava spilling through the fissure.

And many Icelanders shared images on social media of the eruption’s aftermath, which cast an orange hue into the sky. At night, from certain angles, its glow merged with the famed green and blue of the northern lights.

Pop star Björk — perhaps Iceland’s most famous resident — was one of those expressing excitement about the historic event and ensuing beauty.

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